Ray Kurzweil makes a simple yet profound statement in his 2024 book – The Singularity is Nearer. “When behaviors are driven by genetics rather than by learning, they are by orders of magnitude slower to adapt.”
I am pretty sure that a lot of you out there are saying, “Yah, doesn’t everyone know that?” Yep. When I read that statement, I thought the same thing.
On reflection however, the answer to that question is: there are a lot of people who don’t know that. A whole lot of business leaders rely on instincts to achieve goals, however many of those instincts are already stale dated. Artificial intelligence is making quick work of our past beliefs.
In his book he underlines that as we see automation take hold, we should expect to see a different pattern of adoption. AI innovation will not follow the standard path of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Instead the path will be exponential. 1, 2, 4, 16, 256 and so on. AI will have the distinct advantage of not having personalities or learning styles. There will be no such thing as an introverted or extroverted robot. Robots will be task driven, first programed by humans and then themselves. Let it sink in … 1, 2, 4, 16, 256.
What does this mean for us in our core industry of oil and gas? Well we could hide under the chair and hold on. That is one option, however I think the key here is to focus on learning as the number one corporate objective.
One thing we can learn is that the future of our oil and gas industry is more like that of a factory. It will continue to be normalized and continue to grow. The data is clear. Global oil consumption has risen by 10 million barrels per day over the last 10 years. When AI takes hold, our demand for oil will skyrocket and our industry has a world class opportunity to participate.
We can learn by looking at the Kearl Mine, where the use of automation is deeply entrenched, the result being low operational costs. Kearl is not a mine, it is a factory. The net result will be worldclass competitiveness.
We can learn to apply the same principles in drilling and production. Study the likes of Toyota or VW and apply them on the ground.
Oil and gas isn’t farming anymore, it is now a factory, and AI is not a trend, it is a movement. Time to move!
Chuck Bean is the founder of The Method Effect, a Calgary based consultancy. In his 40-year career, he has led large corporations and worked with over 40 Capstone teams in 20+ North American universities, providing strategic business and innovation support and consulting. www.themethodeffect.com
